Our growing population

The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998. The world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.

This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age, the gradual increase in human lifespan, increasing urbanization, and accelerating migration. Major changes in fertility rate have accompanied this growth. These trends will have far-reaching implications for generations to come.

Day of Eight Billion

On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.

China and India: most populous countries

China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, each representing nearly 18 percent of the world’s population, respectively. Around 2023, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, while China’s population is projected to decrease by 48 million, or around 2.7 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.  (Sources: World Population Prospects 2022 and World Population Dashboard)

The world in 2100

The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these latest population projections. These figures are based on the medium projection variant, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent, as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average. Survival prospects are also projected to improve in all countries.

Africa: fastest growing continent

More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future.  Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding future trends in fertility in Africa, the large number of young people currently on the continent, who will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades.

Shrinking population in Europe

In sharp contrast, the populations of 61 countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease by 2050, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten per cent. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades. 

Factors influencing the population growth

Fertility rates

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. According to the World Population Prospects (2022 Revision), global fertility is projected to fall from 2.3 children per woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050.

Increasing longevity 

Overall, significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050.  While considerable progress has been made in closing the longevity differential between countries, large gaps remain. In 2021, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.

International migration

International migration is a much smaller component of population change than births or deaths. However, in some countries and areas the impact of migration on population size is significant, namely in countries that send or receive large numbers of economic migrants and those affected by refugee flows. Between 2010 and 2021, seventeen countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude. 

United Nations role in population issues

The United Nations system has long been involved in addressing these complex and interrelated issues – notably, through the work of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

UN Population Division

The UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs pulls together information on such issues as international migration and development, urbanization, world population prospects and policies, and marriage and fertility statistics. It supports UN bodies such as the Commission on Population and Development, and supports implementation of the Programme of Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD).

The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world, helps States build capacity to formulate population policies, and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.

UN Population Fund

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) started operations in 1969 to assume a leading role within the UN system in promoting population programmes, based on the human right of individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families. At the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), its mandate was fleshed out in greater detail, to give more emphasis to the gender and human rights dimensions of population issues, and UNFPA was given the lead role in helping countries carry out the Conference’s Programme of Action. UNFPA now works in the areas of sexual and reproductive health, human rights and gender equality, population and development and has programmes for youth.

On the issue of population, the United Nations has held three conferences, two special sessions of the General Assembly and a summit in 2019.

World Population Day is observed annually on 11 July. It marks the date, in 1987, when the world’s population hit the 5 billion mark.

Resources

1. Data from the UNFPA Population Data Portale